Latin America Economics Update A closer look at regional growth 2012 has been a year of mixed fortunes for Latin America’s largest economies. In Chile and Peru, growth has bounced back following a minor wobble in late 2011 and both countries are currently... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tariff cuts to keep Brazilian inflation from accelerating According to our estimates, the cuts in electricity tariffs announced by Brazil’s government last week should broadly offset any pick-up in food inflation that is likely to follow the recent spike in... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil manufacturing still stagnating The Manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil continued its steady improvement in August, but remains at levels broadly consistent with a stagnation in industrial production. To compound matters, last month... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil held back by supply constraints The Brazilian economy should fare better in the second half of this year, but we doubt that any rebound will be as brisk as policymakers expect. Indeed, with supply constraints holding back growth, we... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Persistent imbalances in the drivers of growth Growth is still unbalanced in many parts of Latin America. The resilience of domestic demand against a weak global backdrop has helped to bolster service sector activity, even as local industry... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: modest recovery to keep rates lower than most expect The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) lowered interest rates by a further 50bps last night and hinted that the end of the current easing cycle may now be very close. We think that the consensus expectation... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil takes a (small) step in the right direction Measures unveiled by the Brazilian government this afternoon are good news insofar as they will help tackle some of the supply side problems that are holding the economy back. But any impact will be... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still stuck in a rut The modest increase in industrial output in June does not alter the fact that Brazil’s economy and its manufacturers in particular are still struggling. Further stimulus measures seem likely over the... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates to stay lower for longer Last night’s decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to cut interest rates was widely expected. With policymakers struggling to revive the economy, and external headwinds brewing, we think that... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to stoke inflation A sharp jump in some agricultural commodity prices has stoked fears of a renewed spike in inflation in Latin America. But we think that those concerns are misplaced. Indeed, we expect the agricultural... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s looming credit crunch The current pace of credit growth in Brazil remains unsustainable – and the longer it continues, the bigger the risk of a messy ending further down the line. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Industrial slowdown could soon spread to Mexico The latest fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI suggests that, despite a sharp drop in the currency over the past three months or so, producers in Latin America’s largest economy are still feeling the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pushing down our forecasts The fact that our forecasts for Brazilian growth were already at the very bottom of the consensus range means that we have not had to make significant adjustments in light of weaker than expected... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
