Latin America Economics Update How real is the threat of protectionism? Concerns that Latin America might be spiralling towards a new era of protectionism have emerged in 2012. But while it is true that the region as a whole has seen an increase in protectionist trade... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q1 GDP dragged down by weather-related effects A weather-related collapse in agricultural production is the main reason for Brazil’s desperately weak growth in the first quarter of this year. These effects will be temporary and should reverse over... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates: falling further for longer Last night’s decision by the Central Bank of Brazil to slow the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that we are getting close to the end of the easing cycle. Nonetheless, we continue to expect the... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Checking up on our equity market forecasts Our previous analysis, suggesting that Brazilian and Argentine equities would be most vulnerable to a general spike in risk aversion, has been borne out in the recent sell-off. Mexican markets, on the... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What should we expect from first quarter GDP in Brazil? We think that first quarter GDP growth in Brazil will be somewhat stronger than the monthly economic activity indicator produced by the central bank (BCB) suggests. But there is no sign yet of a much... 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spanish banking links revisited The direct exposure of Latin American banks to the deepening crisis in Spain is not as great as it seems at first sight. Even so, there are at least three ways in which the region’s banks could be hit... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From currency wars to interest rate wars Not content with waging a “currency war” against the rest of the world, Brazil’s government is now doing battle with its own banks over the high interest rates charged on loans to consumers and... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian manufacturing suffers a relapse April’s manufacturing PMI survey for Brazil contains little in the way of good news. Not only does the drop in the headline index suggest that industrial output is falling once again, but the forward... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking our interest rate forecasts We are making some small tweaks to our forecast for interest rates in Latin America. If the global economy weakens later this year, as we expect, it is still likely that most central banks in the... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank earlier this month to cut interest rates once again has raised concerns in some quarters about the outlook for inflation over the rest of this year. As it happens... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s interest rate floor revisited The decision earlier this week by Brazil’s central bank (BCB) to cut interest rates once again – and signal further easing ahead – has revived talk about a “floor” on interest rates in Latin America’s... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
