Latin America Economics Update Government spending isn't the solution to Brazil's problems The response of Brazil’s government to recent unrest suggests a willingness to engage with protestors’ concerns, but also reveals a fundamental misdiagnosis of the underlying issues. The problem lies... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Latin American currencies? The sharp falls in Latin American currencies over the past month mean that many are now below our end-year targets, which looked extremely bearish only a few months ago. But while we think the trend... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian protests underline economy's structural flaws The protests that have spread across Brazil over the past week have so far had a limited impact on financial markets and so – in contrast to Turkey – are unlikely to have immediate implications for... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's fiscal risks revisited The murky world of Brazil’s public finances has come under increased scrutiny in recent weeks, after ratings agency S&P downgraded the nation’s sovereign debt outlook. In this Watch we take a fresh... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to re-visit our forecasts? Two developments over the past week make this an ideal opportunity to revisit our forecasts for Brazil. On the one hand, weak Q1 GDP data support our long-held view that the economic recovery will... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No sign of a rebound in Latin America manufacturing in May May’s manufacturing surveys suggest that the Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing sectors both weakened further last month. But while Brazilian industry will probably continue to struggle over the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil ups the ante in fight against inflation Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bps last night, sending out a strong message that it has not gone soft on inflation. Further hikes are possible in the months... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More needs to be done to rebalance Brazilian economy The strong performance of Brazilian investment in Q1 is promising, but it will have to be maintained for a sustained period in order to significantly ease the economy’s supply constraints and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil must save to invest The renewed focus of the Brazilian authorities on raising investment suggests a growing acceptance that the slump in growth over the past year or so has been driven in part by structural factors... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil’s oil output reach its potential? Brazil is unlikely to meet its ambitious targets for oil production, but crude output could still increase by at least one million barrels per day from current levels by 2020. This would add to... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation edges to within target range The drop in Brazilian inflation last month was a bit smaller than expected but still sufficient to bring it back within the central bank’s target range. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to fluctuate... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers starting to feel the strain The recent slump in retail sales in Brazil probably overstates the true weakness of consumer spending. Nonetheless, putting to one side the volatility of the monthly data, there are signs that Brazil... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further evidence of a faltering recovery The drop in the manufacturing PMI for April adds to evidence that Brazil’s recovery has faltered in recent months and is another reason to think that the current monetary policy tightening cycle will... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
