Commodities Update China PMIs encouraging for commodities demand While doom and gloom builds around China’s growth, PMIs for August provided some encouragement this week, even if they didn’t paint a picture of booming commodities demand. They suggest infrastructure... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly A major step-up in support Stimulus efforts are finally gaining momentum. Yesterday, regulators announced measures to support households and shore up the property sector, including looser downpayment requirements and reductions... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Aug.) The PMI surveys suggest economic momentum stabilised in August after months of slowdown. Downward pressure on manufacturing activity appears to have dissipated, while construction activity accelerated... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Focus Steel prices unlikely to forge ahead Absent major fiscal stimulus in China, global steel demand growth will be weak in the next few months. Accordingly, we forecast price declines in major steel markets towards year-end. Only when... 29th August 2023 · 11 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy regained some ground in July, following a contraction in June. But the big picture is that output has levelled off recently and that the... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas prices strike lower; iron ore resilient It has generally been a positive week for commodity prices. Most metals and agricultural prices rose on the week, in somewhat of a turnaround from recent trends. By contrast, energy commodities fell... 25th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property stimulus tea leaves, BRICS expansion The PBOC surprised analysts by keeping the benchmark for mortgage pricing unchanged this week. President Xi’s catch-phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, widely associated with tight... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jul.) Global steel production will probably continue to edge lower in the next few months, following the latest month-on-month decline revealed by the WSA today. Crucially, we think that steel demand will... 22nd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (July) Global aluminium production growth slowed for the seventh consecutive month and dipped into contractionary territory in July on the back of weakness in China. We think production growth will stagnate... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ambition collides with reality at the BRICS summit China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning... 21st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shadow banks are getting squeezed Zhongzhi won’t be the last shadow bank to run into trouble. Others are also suffering from mounting losses on their assets and a funding squeeze as cautious investors shift money into deposits and... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read