Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021 Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office... 24th September 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery We estimate that households in Poland, Czechia and Hungary have accumulated “excess” savings worth 4% of GDP so far during the pandemic and this stockpile looks set to grow further in the coming... 8th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Is it time to worry about Romania’s current account? The widening of Romania’s current account deficit to a 10-year high partly reflects a rise in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings which is not a concern. But the trade balance has also worsened and the... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: leading the CEE recovery in 2021 The strength of Romania’s economy in Q1 and the positive outlook for growth over the coming quarters means that we now expect GDP to expand by 6.8% this year (compared to 4.8% previously). 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s election to pave way for fiscal conservatism Parliamentary elections in Romania that took place on Sunday look set to result in the incumbent centre-right PNL party forming a new coalition government. A new PNL-led coalition would probably... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Romanian industrial take-up to wane Although demand for Romanian industrial space held up in H1, we expect it to weaken over the rest of the year as consumer demand falters and the economy recovers only slowly. Combined with incentives... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
