Growth set to slow, but outperformance to continue We learnt today that India’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3 (Q2 of FY25/26) to a breakneck 8.2% y/y, from an already-strong 7.8% y/y in Q2. (Our initial response to the data can be read here .) Admittedly, …
28th November 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Import-led jump masks underlying weakness The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying …
Much attention has been given recently to the roll-back of President Macron’s pension reform in France. However, the arguably even more significant pension backsliding in Germany has gone almost unnoticed. The German parliament will soon start debating a …
As the dust settles on this week’s Budget, we take a step back and answer three questions we’ve been asked most frequently by clients. Clients can catch up on our detailed analysis and our online briefing following Wednesday’s fiscal event here and here . …
Headline and core inflation slightly higher in November The national inflation data for November published today suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone edged up. November’s data show that among the euro-zone’s largest countries, …
Vanke’s woes suggest state support being reduced In a first for a major state-backed developer, Vanke this week announced plans to delay repayment of an onshore bond. The firm’s debt has sold off sharply on the news, with some of its onshore bonds now …
GDP growth surges in Q3, outlook is positive despite US tariffs India’s economic growth surged in Q3 and came in well above expectations. Punitive US tariffs remain a headwind for the outlook, but prospects for a trade deal with the US appear to have …
The latest data suggest that the global economy has maintained its momentum at the start of Q4. Global trade and industry have held up well despite US tariffs, although there were signs of cracks in China’s export resilience in October. In advanced …
Taiwan: defence spending plan to be slimmed down Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn ($40bn) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it passes, the …
But a move in January is still more likely Press reports this week suggest that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a rate hike as soon as next month. Indeed, Board member Masu signalled over the weekend that she could be the fourth Board member …
Fresh problems in China’s property sector won’t, in our view, stop the country’s stock market from powering ahead over the next year or so. They do, however, point to longer-run challenges. News that large Chinese property developer Vanke was seeking to …
Case for additional policy support is weak Data released this week will almost certainly put the RBA on high alert about upside risks to its outlook. To start with, the ABS published its first ever complete monthly CPI , which showed that trimmed mean CPI …
Economic activity will rebound this quarter Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. The 1.4% m/m rise in industrial production in October followed an …
Underlying inflation set to remain above 2% With the labour market still tight and inflation excluding fresh food and energy set to remain above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months. Taking the …
27th November 2025
The sharp rise in Mexico’s goods exports in October underscores that the country’s external sector has continued to fare well in the face of US tariffs. That has been helped by a surge in sales of products feeding into the US’s AI investment boom, which …
China Chart Pack (Nov. 25) …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) …
While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant increases in employment. This has supported household income …
After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all …
Dubai’s real estate debt not the concern it once was The current boom in Dubai’s residential real estate sector has improved developers’ confidence and led to more borrowing to finance projects. This bears similarities to Dubai’s debt crisis in 2009 …
Generationally-low inflation and headwinds to growth reopen door to further easing We doubt that rupee weakness will constrain the RBI We are forecasting a 25bp cut to repo rate to 5.25% next week; 5.00% in early 2026 The drop in inflation to a …
Growth resilient, price pressures linger The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations suggest …
Stable, moderate growth November’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator is consistent with GDP growth of around 0.2% q/q while the selling-price components suggest that services price pressure remain above pre-pandemic norms. The increase in the headline EC …
Korea’s central bank today left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, and the hawkish comments from Governor Rhee at the press conference appear to rule out any chance of a rate cut in the next few months. But with growth likely to weaken and inflation set to …
We think the Japanese yen and the Korean won will rally against the US dollar next year regardless of any FX intervention, although it would help. The recent weakness of the yen and the won has raised the prospect of a response from the authorities in …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing next year The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 2.50%, and we expect rates to be left unchanged for a few months before the central bank resumes its easing cycle, most likely around the …
After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t significantly alter our economic forecasts. There’s still a …
26th November 2025
Fed officials still split on Dec rate cut The market-implied odds that the Fed will deliver another interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting in December surged to ~80% this week. The vote still appears to be going down to the wire but, assuming that Chair …
The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a fraught fiscal process a bit stronger. While fiscal policy …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed last month on the back of weaker growth in services activity. And, despite October’s export slowdown, the industr ial sector remained resilient, suggesting that the recent slump in fixed investment …
AI boom continues to boost investment September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. Durable goods orders rose by 0.5% m/m in September off …
BoG delivers another 350bp cut The Bank of Ghana kept up its jumbo rate cuts today, lowering its policy rate by another 350bp to 18.00%. The optimistic policy statement from the BoG suggests more large cuts are coming, increasing our confidence that at …
This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis we published later in the day that takes into account …
Against the backdrop of the US – the world’s second largest emitter – pulling out of the Paris Agreement at the start of this year, making significant progress at COP30 in Brazil was always going to be an uphill task for negotiators. The hosts were unable …
Fall in inflation strengthens the case for January cut The further decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in the first half of November, combined with the recent weak activity data, mean that it’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will kick off …
While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based valuation gains across the index. That’s the opposite of what …
The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly than is likely to be the case. Our base case is that the …
Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates still need to rise further to bring sustained improvement. …
Sweeping labour market reforms in India have been overshadowed by haphazard implementation and will raise compliance cost for firms in the near term. But once the dust settles, several new measures could bring economic benefits over the medium term by …
After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic demand should hold up well, ensuring that India remains a …
In line with our long-held forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.25% at its meeting today and signalled that its easing cycle has now come to an end. As the recovery gains traction, the Bank expects to start normalising policy again in …
RBNZ done easing, but rate hikes are a long while away The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicated that it's cutting cycle is now at an end. However, with spare capacity to persist for a while to come, rate hikes won't be on the agenda until well into 2027. …
Upside risks rise further in Australia With inflationary pressures continuing to strengthen at the start of the quarter, there is little chance that rate cuts will be on the RBA’s agenda anytime soon. The ABS’ first ever complete monthly CPI …
Falling real yields have supported a broad rally in the US stock market today. But the larger gains yesterday owed little to rate expectations, highlighting that falling yields are not needed for strong equity performance. So, even though we expect real …
25th November 2025
We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth outlook, despite White House immigration curbs limiting …
Higher gilt yields and taxes to weigh on recovery Overview – With the 10-year gilt yield now set to be higher for longer and the Budget likely to raise taxes on households, the outlook for commercial property has become a bit gloomier. We now expect total …
The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still vulnerable to acute debt problems. We also remain …
Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity market. The improved sentiment in stock and bond …
