Slowing services activity weighing on growth This report was first published on Monday 1 st December, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3 rd …
1st December 2025
In response to a hawkish speech by Governor Ueda today, we now expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th December instead of our previous forecast of January. Ueda noted that the adverse effects …
Slump in imports boosts GDP The better-than-expected 2.6% gain in third-quarter GDP growth, compared to the 0.5% implied by the earlier monthly GDP data, was entirely for the wrong reasons. An 8.6% annualised slump in imports contributed 2.8%-points to …
28th November 2025
The US and Ukraine reported that they had drawn up an “updated and refined peace framework” to end the war in Ukraine after talks in Geneva on Sunday. Details of this framework are not widely available, but comments from both sides suggest it is more …
Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) …
SA-US G20 spat, other powers moving into Africa The US this week continued its long-running campaign against South Africa. While US-Africa relations continue to deteriorate, alternative powers are moving in with financial and political support. President …
TTF prices at 18-month lows as peace deal on table The latest fall in EU natural gas prices – which saw the TTF benchmark drop below €30 per MWh this week for the first time since May 2024 – has been driven largely by hopes that the Russia-Ukraine peace …
Brazil’s slowdown firmly underway GDP data released next week out of Brazil are likely to show a quarterly contraction in Q3. The BCB’s monthly economic activity index has fallen in four of the last five months, with activity declining by almost 1.0% in …
Growth set to slow, but outperformance to continue We learnt today that India’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3 (Q2 of FY25/26) to a breakneck 8.2% y/y, from an already-strong 7.8% y/y in Q2. (Our initial response to the data can be read here .) Admittedly, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Import-led jump masks underlying weakness The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying …
Much attention has been given recently to the roll-back of President Macron’s pension reform in France. However, the arguably even more significant pension backsliding in Germany has gone almost unnoticed. The German parliament will soon start debating a …
As the dust settles on this week’s Budget, we take a step back and answer three questions we’ve been asked most frequently by clients. Clients can catch up on our detailed analysis and our online briefing following Wednesday’s fiscal event here and here . …
Headline and core inflation slightly higher in November The national inflation data for November published today suggest that headline and core inflation in the euro-zone edged up. November’s data show that among the euro-zone’s largest countries, …
Vanke’s woes suggest state support being reduced In a first for a major state-backed developer, Vanke this week announced plans to delay repayment of an onshore bond. The firm’s debt has sold off sharply on the news, with some of its onshore bonds now …
GDP growth surges in Q3, outlook is positive despite US tariffs India’s economic growth surged in Q3 and came in well above expectations. Punitive US tariffs remain a headwind for the outlook, but prospects for a trade deal with the US appear to have …
The latest data suggest that the global economy has maintained its momentum at the start of Q4. Global trade and industry have held up well despite US tariffs, although there were signs of cracks in China’s export resilience in October. In advanced …
Taiwan: defence spending plan to be slimmed down Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn ($40bn) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it passes, the …
But a move in January is still more likely Press reports this week suggest that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a rate hike as soon as next month. Indeed, Board member Masu signalled over the weekend that she could be the fourth Board member …
Fresh problems in China’s property sector won’t, in our view, stop the country’s stock market from powering ahead over the next year or so. They do, however, point to longer-run challenges. News that large Chinese property developer Vanke was seeking to …
Case for additional policy support is weak Data released this week will almost certainly put the RBA on high alert about upside risks to its outlook. To start with, the ABS published its first ever complete monthly CPI , which showed that trimmed mean CPI …
Economic activity will rebound this quarter Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. The 1.4% m/m rise in industrial production in October followed an …
Underlying inflation set to remain above 2% With the labour market still tight and inflation excluding fresh food and energy set to remain above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months. Taking the …
27th November 2025
The sharp rise in Mexico’s goods exports in October underscores that the country’s external sector has continued to fare well in the face of US tariffs. That has been helped by a surge in sales of products feeding into the US’s AI investment boom, which …
China Chart Pack (Nov. 25) …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2025) …
While Spain’s fast rate of employment growth has attracted attention recently, the quality of jobs has also improved. In particular, the information and communication sector has seen significant increases in employment. This has supported household income …
After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all …
Dubai’s real estate debt not the concern it once was The current boom in Dubai’s residential real estate sector has improved developers’ confidence and led to more borrowing to finance projects. This bears similarities to Dubai’s debt crisis in 2009 …
Generationally-low inflation and headwinds to growth reopen door to further easing We doubt that rupee weakness will constrain the RBI We are forecasting a 25bp cut to repo rate to 5.25% next week; 5.00% in early 2026 The drop in inflation to a …
Growth resilient, price pressures linger The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations suggest …
Stable, moderate growth November’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator is consistent with GDP growth of around 0.2% q/q while the selling-price components suggest that services price pressure remain above pre-pandemic norms. The increase in the headline EC …
Korea’s central bank today left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, and the hawkish comments from Governor Rhee at the press conference appear to rule out any chance of a rate cut in the next few months. But with growth likely to weaken and inflation set to …
We think the Japanese yen and the Korean won will rally against the US dollar next year regardless of any FX intervention, although it would help. The recent weakness of the yen and the won has raised the prospect of a response from the authorities in …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing next year The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 2.50%, and we expect rates to be left unchanged for a few months before the central bank resumes its easing cycle, most likely around the …
After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t significantly alter our economic forecasts. There’s still a …
26th November 2025
Fed officials still split on Dec rate cut The market-implied odds that the Fed will deliver another interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting in December surged to ~80% this week. The vote still appears to be going down to the wire but, assuming that Chair …
The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a fraught fiscal process a bit stronger. While fiscal policy …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed last month on the back of weaker growth in services activity. And, despite October’s export slowdown, the industr ial sector remained resilient, suggesting that the recent slump in fixed investment …
AI boom continues to boost investment September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. Durable goods orders rose by 0.5% m/m in September off …
BoG delivers another 350bp cut The Bank of Ghana kept up its jumbo rate cuts today, lowering its policy rate by another 350bp to 18.00%. The optimistic policy statement from the BoG suggests more large cuts are coming, increasing our confidence that at …
This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis we published later in the day that takes into account …
Against the backdrop of the US – the world’s second largest emitter – pulling out of the Paris Agreement at the start of this year, making significant progress at COP30 in Brazil was always going to be an uphill task for negotiators. The hosts were unable …
Fall in inflation strengthens the case for January cut The further decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in the first half of November, combined with the recent weak activity data, mean that it’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will kick off …
While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based valuation gains across the index. That’s the opposite of what …
The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly than is likely to be the case. Our base case is that the …
Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates still need to rise further to bring sustained improvement. …
Sweeping labour market reforms in India have been overshadowed by haphazard implementation and will raise compliance cost for firms in the near term. But once the dust settles, several new measures could bring economic benefits over the medium term by …
After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic demand should hold up well, ensuring that India remains a …
