China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist …
22nd August 2025
Talks intensify over security guarantees The intensification of talks to end the war in Ukraine signals cautious progress, but Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their key demands. And Russia’s recalcitrance has become increasingly clear in the last …
Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with more oil supply coming online, we think that prices will decline further. Rising oil output will lead to faster GDP growth in the Gulf, although this will mask weakness in …
A strong June, but potential trouble ahead The strong rebound in June retail sales should reassure the Bank of Canada that consumer spending is holding up, although the flash estimate of a drop back in sales in July implies that growth remains muted on …
Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will start to accelerate in the latter part of this year. Admittedly, the Composite PMI for the euro-zone rose again in August. However, it pointed to only a small …
Kenya’s scramble for finance and China alignment This week brought fresh details about Kenya’s strategy to deal with its fiscal problems, which appears increasingly reliant on liability management operations. This may alleviate short-term liquidity …
Though future changes to US tariffs could still cause some volatility in equity markets, we think other factors will mean equities outside the US continue to make decent gains for the rest of this year and next. It has generally been a good few weeks for …
July’s better-than-expected public borrowing figures did little to brighten the gloomy outlook ahead of the Autumn Budget. (See here .) The 44 basis point rise in 20-year gilt yields since the Spring Statement suggests the Chancellor’s headroom against …
Social security tweak will hurt near-term activity From 1 st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term …
EU natural gas: a brief climb before the steep drop The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, as well as the subsequent meeting between President Trump and European leaders, didn’t deliver a breakthrough towards reaching an end to the war in Ukraine. In fact, it …
Korea – central bank to resume easing cycle After lowering interest rates by a full 100bps between October 2024 and June 2025, the Bank of Korea hit pause at its July meeting. Now, attention turns to Thursday’s decision – and it looks set to be a close …
The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and other measures of wages) to fall to a level consistent …
Overview – UK commercial property rental growth continues to surprise on the upside, but the capital value recovery is already running out of steam. Looking ahead, weak economic growth, a narrow spread between property yields and risk-free rates, and …
Tariff threats jolt policymakers into action Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27 th August deadline. Last week’s summit between Presidents Trump and Putin did not move the needle for …
RBNZ concedes more stimulus is needed The main event this week was the RBNZ’s meeting on Wednesday. Although the Bank’s move to cut rates by 25bp was widely anticipated, markets were caught wrongfooted by its overtly dovish pivot. Indeed, the Committee …
Tariffs starting to bite, but economy resilient The economic data released this week were a mixed bag. The doves on the BoJ Board will feel vindicated by the 4.3% m/m plunge in real exports in July. (See Chart 1.) And while that still left them above …
October rate hike still in play for BoJ Although inflation is likely to cool a bit further in the months ahead, it shouldn’t prevent the Bank of Japan from resuming its tightening cycle in October. Headline inflation fell from 3.3% in June to 3.1% in …
US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in the US money market, the risks arguably are still skewed …
21st August 2025
India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting drop in exports to the US could reduce GDP growth by …
Egypt: the door’s open for rate cuts to resume Egypt’s President al-Sisi this week renewed Hassan Abdalla’s term as Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) for another year in a sign that the government remains committed to macro orthodoxy. In …
Small improvement in sales doesn’t change the narrative Despite a small uptick in July, home sales have held in a narrow 3.9-4.1 million annualised range since mid-2023, a historically weak level that highlights the lack of momentum in the struggling …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Activity rebounds, upside risks to inflation remain The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank …
Slow growth and slight increase in price pressures August’s flash Composite PMI suggests that the euro-zone economy and manufacturing in particular have continued to be fairly resilient in the face of tariffs but that overall economic growth remains weak. …
Undershoot not as good as it looks July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of £177.7bn. …
Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth . The conventional wisdom is that an unbridled post-pandemic expansion in …
Early signs that US tariffs are starting to bite While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest. According …
Only limited support for Fed rate cut at July FOMC meeting The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. …
20th August 2025
The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with relatively low tariffs. The actual tariff rate is …
Rising delinquency rates among typically lower-income FHA borrowers hint at stress in riskier segments of the residential mortgage market. But since most FHA borrowers remain in decent financial shape and FHA loans make up only a small share of …
Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and South Africa over the next 18 months or so. In contrast, …
Rates left on hold, but window for cuts is opening The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and the accompanying communications continued to highlight concerns about the inflationary risks stemming from the ongoing war …
Ahead of the Budget on 26 November, our economists discussed the potential impact of the Chancellor’s second Budget in a special in-person roundtable held on Wednesday 12 November . The event offered the opportunity to hear their latest thinking, ask …
7th October 2025
The World in 2026 is our definitive guide to the global economy and markets in the year ahead. In this special in-person briefing held on Tuesday 2 December, a panel of our senior economists set out what they see as the key forces shaping developed and …
27th October 2025
A year ago, our clients were citing geopolitical risk and the second Trump term as their key blind spots going into 2025. Those factors have indeed buffeted the commercial property recovery to some degree, but the dominating narrative is one of …
23rd September 2025
It's been an eventful start of the year in emerging markets, with US intervention in Venezuela and instability in Iran. Against the backdrop of this upheaval, China's leadership is finalising its Five-Year Plan, elections are going to get underway across …
10th December 2025
The opening months of the Trump administration generated plenty of noise about a remaking of the global order – but how much is actually changing? Is the breakdown in US–China relations still the defining challenge for the global economy? And what are the …
Can the UK economy shrug off more political uncertainty? Will Rachel Reeves use her fiscal statement on 3 rd March to strengthen the government’s position ahead of May’s local elections? Who will be UK Chancellor at the time of the Autumn Budget? Our …
29th January 2026
The World in 2026 is our definitive guide to the global economy and markets in the year ahead. In this special in-person briefing held on Wednesday 14 January, a panel of our senior economists set out what they see as the key forces shaping developed and …
5th December 2025
China is finalising a new Five-Year Plan at a moment of transition: even as its investment-heavy economic model is threatened by entrenched overcapacity and deflation, Beijing is making a bid for global technology leadership, including in AI. At the same …
17th December 2025
18th August 2025
July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by year-end. Data published this morning confirmed that both …
Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while some of this may be due to tariff front-running, other …
