Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia default, SA activity, Ghana inflation fall Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to... 15th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to reach 28.2% y/y in November, as the naira’s weakening continued to pass through. Aggressive interest rate hikes are needed to stabilise tackle... 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. But we think that a combination of easing electricity outages and less restrictive fiscal... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to a slightly lower-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November, but the fresh rise in core inflation reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank is unlikely... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBK supports the shilling, SA current account The Kenyan central bank’s surprise 200bp interest rate hike, to 12.50%, on Tuesday was clearly aimed at shoring up the currency. There are other reasons to think that pressure on the shilling will... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A tepid recovery Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be... 7th December 2023 · 21 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.2% q/q in Q3 and more timely indicators point to a weak end to 2023, not helped by recent disruptions to the port and freight network. But there are reasons to... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up in 2024, but a challenging external... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria resists hikes, Zambia debt, Transnet problems Zambia and Angola raised interest rates this week in response to high inflation, but Nigeria didn’t. Indeed, the scheduled CBN meeting for this week didn’t even take place. The Bank now has its work... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the... 24th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB stands pat, but hawkish rhetoric remains The South African Reserve Bank opted against responding to last month’s larger-than-expected rise in inflation with an interest rate hike, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. But officials... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet tomorrow. Given that... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: drag from loadshedding set to ease The intensification of loadshedding has brought growth in South Africa’s economy to a halt this year, but there appears (finally) to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Repairs to existing power... 20th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (October.) Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated again to 27.3% y/y in September, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s struggles continued to feed through. The central bank will need to respond... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s activity data for South Africa suggest that the economy probably stagnated over Q3 as a whole. Some of the recent drags on the economy, such as loadshedding, are likely to ease in 2024 but... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
