Africa Economics Weekly Africa food prices, SARB resignation, Zambia bond deal Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. In South Africa, the resignation... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian banks set to weather naira devaluation The large falls in Nigeria’s currency will push inflation up even further and is one reason behind our below consensus near-term GDP growth forecasts. But the good news is that the banking sector... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, debt problems, South Africa CPI Sovereign debt restructuring discussions between Zambia and Ghana and their bilateral creditors have been encouraging, but challenging talks with private lenders remain. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of South African activity data for August was a mixed bag, but the overall picture is that the economy struggled for growth in Q3. And tight policy means that growth in 2024 will be modest... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.4% y/y, in September supports our view that the Reserve Bank will only turn towards interest rate cuts from next year. 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 26.7% y/y in September, reflecting the continued passthrough from the removal of fuel subsidies and the naira’s devaluation... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt prices to drift lower through 2024 Cobalt is likely to keep its position as a leading battery metal for years to come, but its high cost compared to alternative metals means that cobalt demand won’t grow as fast as overall battery... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances worsen ahead of MTBPS The continued deterioration in South Africa’s budget position in recent months leaves Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana facing an uphill challenge to reassure investors at November’s Medium Term... 12th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria strike, Kenya debt, Oxford malaria vaccine This week, Nigeria avoided a potentially disruptive workers’ strike after a late government offer of short-term relief measures, but these risk adding to fiscal and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: inflation, debt risks to hold back rate cuts Sub-Saharan African central banks are unlikely to follow their peers in other EMs in cutting interest rates soon. With inflation falling more slowly, alongside balance of payment and public debt... 5th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a fresh large fall in September, suggesting that the pick-up in activity in August was a one-off. We expect growth to remain sluggish over the coming quarters... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a... 29th September 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA avian flu, Mozambique LNG hopes, CE Spotlight South Africa is in the midst of a severe avian flu outbreak which, coming alongside the effects of loadshedding, has prompted fears of shortages and higher prices for eggs and chicken meat. But this... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from Nigeria’s policy shift at risk of evaporating Nigeria’s policy shift has stalled in recent weeks as officials have responded to a growing political backlash by reverting to the interventionist tendencies of the Buhari administration. The result... 28th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Balance sheet problems to weigh on recoveries Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and... 27th September 2023 · 20 mins read
