Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria GDP (Q2) Nigeria’s economic growth picked up to 2.5% y/y in Q2 as the damaging effects of a botched demonetisation process continued to fade, but this was partly offset by a larger drag from the oil sector... 25th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five key themes from the BRICS summit Efforts by the BRICS group to demonstrate an image of unity and cooperation were on full show at this week’s summit, but – aside from membership expansion – policy proposals were light and not overly... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s slow tourism recovery sustains external strains Sub-Saharan Africa’s tourism industry has recovered slowly from the pandemic, albeit with significant variation in performance across the continent. Signs that the tourism outlook is weakening risk... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in July leaves it within touching distance of the mid-point of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and means that... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian FX & cabinet, China woes, BRICS summit Continued naira weakness and fuel price concerns have prompted Nigeria’s government to undertake some short-term fixes that threaten renewed vulnerabilities further down the line. Our concerns about... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update China, Africa and lengthy debt talks China’s prominence as a creditor to African economies goes a long way to explaining the slower speed of debt restructuring negotiations in Zambia, in contrast to Ghana, following their respective... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) South Africa’s activity data for June suggest that the economy managed to eke out positive growth in Q2, but more timely indicators suggest that activity struggled to sustain this momentum at the... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to an almost-18 year high of 24.1% y/y, as the removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira continue to push up prices. This fresh increase... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira widens, South Africa solar surge, Ghana CPI Two months on from the naira’s devaluation, the gap between Nigeria’s official and black market exchange rates is widening again suggesting that the CBN is once again propping up the naira and that... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kwanza slump adds to clouds over Angola’s outlook Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria unorthodox remarks, weak South Africa activity Amid signs that the removal of fuel subsidies and devaluation of the naira are weighing on Nigeria’s economy, comments from President Tinubu and potential cabinet members this week reinforced our... 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell even further in July as power cuts intensified again and the outlook remains bleak – we remain comfortable with our forecast for the economy as a whole to... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria and Ghana’s contrasting hikes, Niger’s coup We expect Nigeria’s central bank to follow up its underwhelming 25bp interest rate hike this week, with more aggressive action at the next meeting as inflation should have risen sharply. Still, a... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food security risks back in the spotlight Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would make the SARB hike again? Policymakers at the South African Reserve Bank are keen to emphasise that their work to tame the “inflation monster” is not over, leaving open the possibility of additional monetary tightening. The... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
