Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM export resilience starting to fade EM goods exports held up relatively well at the start of the year but more recent data suggest that resilience is waning. With demand from advanced economies set to soften, the boost from auto exports... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to a fresh 17-year high of 22.4% y/y and the recent removal of fuel subsidies alongside yesterday’s devaluation of the naira mean that it is likely to surge to... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria devalues the naira Reports that the Central Bank of Nigeria has devalued the naira would, if confirmed, represent another positive policy step by the new Tinubu administration. But we retain our reservations this is a... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after dodging a technical recession in Q1, the economy made a bright start to the second quarter. But external and domestic headwinds, including... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update What does Emefiele’s suspension mean for Nigeria? The suspension and potential removal of Godwin Emefiele as Nigeria’s central bank governor raises hopes that there will be a shift away from the current unorthodox and interventionist monetary and... 12th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA agriculture slump, rand recovers South Africa’s Q1 GDP figures released this week revealed a big drag from the agricultural sector. Some of the factors that weighed on output (namely the weather) are likely to prove temporary but... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) The 0.4% q/q rise in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 means that the economy once again skirted a technical recession, but the outlook remains bleak. Severe power cuts, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB warns of higher risk premia, Tinubu takes office One new threat to the inflation outlook that the South African Reserve Bank highlighted at its policy meeting on Thursday was a higher country risk premium which is fuelling downward pressure on the... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Central banks in SA and Nigeria still in hawkish mood Central banks in the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, both hiked interest rates this month and, whereas attention elsewhere is turning to rate cuts, the risks seem to be... 25th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeps eyes firmly focussed on inflation The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked interest rates by 50bp, to 8.25%, today on the back of policymakers’ growing concerns about the inflationary impact of persistent power cuts. For now, we... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: The case for EM equity outperformance 1685628000 During our latest monthly dive into the big themes in emerging markets, the team discussed the macro and market forces that could see EM equities breaking their recent run of underperformance again
Africa Economics Update CBN tightens further as inflation threats mount The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp, to 18.50%, reaffirmed that officials continue to focus on tackling high and rising inflation at the expense of supporting the... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigeria’s economic growth slowed to just 2.3% y/y in Q1 as the damaging effects of a botched demonetisation process more than offset an easing of the drag from the oil sector. With the rise in oil... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to 6.8% y/y in April but the further strengthening of core inflation will alarm Reserve Bank officials about the impact of loadshedding on price... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and AGOA, Nigeria inflation, Ghana-IMF Allegations that South Africa has supplied arms to Russia has led to calls for the country to lose preferential trade access to the US via the African Growth and Opportunities Act which, while not a... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
