Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2023) Nigeria’s GDP growth rebounded to 3.5% y/y in Q4 but we doubt that this strength will last. Tighter monetary policy, coming alongside the pernicious effects of further weakness in the naira and... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: election pressures will challenge austerity plans The fiscal restraint shown by South Africa’s finance minister in today’s Budget was received positively in local financial markets, but the reality is that the government will struggle to meet its... 21st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle even... 21st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look ahead to South Africa’s Budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces an uphill task in next week’s Budget to convince investors that the government will be able to place the public finances on a sustainable footing... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can the SARB help South Africa’s public finances? South Africa’s fiscal strains have seen the government explore tapping revaluation gains on the country’s FX reserves held at the SARB. Utilising these funds to pay down the government’s debt would... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa ended 2023 on a weak note South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy finished last year with a whimper, but we think that easing electricity outages, weaker inflation pressures and less restrictive fiscal... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA, Kenya buyback, Zambian copper South African President Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address this week pointed to costly welfare and healthcare expansions ahead of this year’s election. This would make the job of stabilising the... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Kenya Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Central Bank of Kenya delivered a surprise 50bp interest rate hike today, to 13.0%, suggesting that the MPC’s inflation fears are outweighing signs that exchange rate pressures are easing. With... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
