The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still thought the current policy stance was restrictive. “All participants” agreed with the decision to hold rates unchanged last month. Before resuming rate cuts, officials would need to see “further progress on inflation”, which we suspect will fail to materialise if President Trump follows through with even half of his tariff threats.
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