The much weaker-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in June sows some doubt in our view that the Fed will reverse all three of its “insurance cuts” over the next three quarters. Nonetheless, with the three-month average employment gain still tracking at a solid 111,000 and core inflation sticky, it will take a couple more underwhelming payrolls prints yet for the doves on the FOMC to have the more compelling argument.
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