US Consumer Prices (May 2026)

The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are not broadening. Nonetheless, our preliminary estimate still points to another above-target monthly gain in the core PCE deflator in May and, with the NFIB survey yesterday showing a sharp rise in firms’ planned price increases, the risks to core inflation remain tilted to the upside.