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Powell suggests first rate cut more likely to be May

Based on the surprisingly explicit steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through today’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March, with the Fed cutting rates by 25bp at each meeting after that, for a cumulative loosening of 150bp this year. We still expect the fed funds rate to fall to a low of between 3.00% and 3.25% in the first half of 2025.

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