Based on the surprisingly explicit steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through today’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March, with the Fed cutting rates by 25bp at each meeting after that, for a cumulative loosening of 150bp this year. We still expect the fed funds rate to fall to a low of between 3.00% and 3.25% in the first half of 2025.
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