October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing less support to demand and house prices. But while the more recent rises in swap rates, especially since the Budget on Wednesday, suggest mortgage rates will soon rebound, we still expect a large fall in mortgage rates to support house prices next year.
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