The small fall in the Halifax house price index in December is at odds with the chunky rise in the Nationwide measure and suggests that recent rises in mortgage rates started to weigh on the housing market at the end of last year a bit more than previously thought. That said, our view that mortgage rates will fall further than most expect to 4.00% explains why we still think house prices will rise by a healthy 3.5% in 2025 compared to the consensus forecast of 2.5-3.0%.
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