The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future cuts in Bank Rate are already being felt. Second, the upward revision to our forecast for annual house price growth in Q4 2024 from -1.5% to +3.0% will probably remove some of the drag on real consumer spending. Third, there is a possibility the fiscal giveaway in the Budget on 6th March will be even larger than anticipated. This increases the chances that the economic recovery starts sooner and is stronger.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.