The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future cuts in Bank Rate are already being felt. Second, the upward revision to our forecast for annual house price growth in Q4 2024 from -1.5% to +3.0% will probably remove some of the drag on real consumer spending. Third, there is a possibility the fiscal giveaway in the Budget on 6th March will be even larger than anticipated. This increases the chances that the economic recovery starts sooner and is stronger.
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