The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession. And while today’s data raises the chances the Bank will cut rates again in December, we are sticking to our view that the Bank will keep rates unchanged at 4.75% in December before cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) in February.
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