GDP (Nov.)

The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy will be able to get through this period of high interest rates and high inflation largely unscathed. We still think a recession is on its way.

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