Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do

The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said, many of the factors that have helped to flip the primary balance back into surplus are transitory and will fade over the coming months. A sustained improvement in Argentina’s public finances will require wholesale fiscal reform, but it will be a tall order for President Milei to get a fiscal bill through congress.