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What a “soft landing” in the US might mean for the greenback

Given that US economic outperformance has tended to coincide with a stronger dollar, we suspect a “soft landing” in the US economy would provide a favourable backdrop for the greenback, if it also meant that growth in the US remained more resilient than elsewhere. That said, our base remains that “safe-haven” demand will push the dollar higher amid a mild recession in the US and other developed markets.

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