Despite a rebound over recent days, the dollar fell sharply in November and, in aggregate, is now roughly flat on the year as a whole. With interest rate expectations shifting down decisively in the US and most other major economies, we expect the rebound in the yen (and most other Asian currencies) to continue. But we think the near-term outlook for the global economy remains poor and market participants’ newfound optimism on that front looks overdone. So, we doubt the greenback will see a sustained, broad-based fall until some way into 2024.
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