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ECB policymakers expect more hikes after March

At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so. Next week, we expect the flash estimate that the euro-zone economy grew by 0.1% q/q in Q4 to be confirmed. But we will learn that industrial production fell in December, adding to the evidence that the economy lost momentum at the end of the year.

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