Oil demand growth to stagnate, not collapse

In this Energy Watch, we assess whether concerns about oil demand during a recession are justified. The macroeconomic backdrop has deteriorated substantially and we expect the global economy to topple into a recession. But oil demand has been relatively inelastic with respect to income in recent history. So, on balance, we think oil demand growth is set to stagnate, rather than fall off a cliff, over the next year or so.