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US shale boom approaching a peak

Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry consolidation, productivity improvements running out of steam, and falling oil prices. Despite this tightening in US shale supply, we still expect a slow rise in OPEC+ supply to mean that oil prices will decline by the end of 2025.

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