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Korea: a weak start to the second quarter

In response to the stronger-than-expected first quarter GDP figures, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee this week hinted that the central bank would revise up its GDP growth forecast (from 2.1%) for this year and that rate cuts were now less likely. In contrast, with more recent monthly activity data suggesting the economy may already be losing momentum, we are sticking with our view that GDP will grow by just 2.0% in 2024 and that the central bank will start loosening policy before the end of the year.

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