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China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2024)

Despite a larger-than-expected y/y fall in export values, export volumes climbed to record highs. Nonetheless, we still think export volumes will grow more slowly this year than they did in 2023, given that consumer spending in advanced economies is cooling and the tailwind from last year’s sharp drop in export prices is fading. Import volumes edged down last month, but they will probably rebound in the coming months as fiscal support for investment spending boosts commodities demand.

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