Activity & Spending (Nov.)

The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai lockdown. Early evidence suggests that activity has also remained subdued so far this month, despite the easing of COVID restrictions. That’s likely to remain the case for a while as many households try to minimize in-person interactions during the reopening wave of infections. Cooling external demand will also remain a near-term drag.