The dollar has come under renewed pressure, in part due to a resurgent “debasement” narrative. While we continue to think such concerns are somewhat overblown, and that the economic backdrop overall will point to a stronger dollar over the coming months, continued surprises from US policymakers may well matter more in the near term. As such, we are increasingly worried that the dollar will remain under pressure rather than, as we have long expected, appreciate over the coming months as the US economy heats up and the FOMC tightens policy.
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