Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar

With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near-term economic outlook. While the global easing cycle is now in full swing and the FOMC is likely to deliver another cut later today, our assessment is that monetary policy will now be eased by less and that US Treasury yields are therefore likely to stay high rather than fall back and the dollar to strengthen rather than weaken over the next year.