US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2025) The huge narrowing of the trade deficit in April was largely driven by a steep drop in pharmaceutical product and gold bullion imports, reversing their earlier surge as tariff front-running ahead of... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025) The surprise decline in the ISM manufacturing index in May indicates that tariffs continue to weigh significantly on the sector. While the May data is less gloomy than initially appears, as a sharp... 2nd June 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr. 2025) With imports slumping after President Trump imposed his tariffs in early April and consumer spending continuing to recover after this year’s unusually severe winter, we now forecast that after... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Court ruling adds another layer of uncertainty to Trump's tariffs The ruling by the three-judge panel of the Federal Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will presumably be appealed by the administration all the way to the... 29th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (May 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-May policy meeting were, on balance, slightly hawkish. In particular, “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Mar.) The March PPI data show the folly of relying too much on the CPI data. Our calculations suggest that, based on the combined inputs from PPI and CPI, core PCE prices increased by a more muted 0.21% m/m... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2025) The rebound in core durable goods orders in April wraps up a month of solid activity data, underscoring that tariffs have yet to inflict the severe damage on the economy some had feared. Nonetheless... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Trump threat of 50% tariffs President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff from 1 st June may well turn out to be a negotiating tactic and seems very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run. But if it were implemented it... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May 2025) The weaker-than-expected May print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was driven by a further increase in inflation expectations and suggests households remain wary about the... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr. 2025) At face value, the stagnation of industrial production in April and the fall in manufacturing output suggest that tariffs are weighing on domestic production. However, some of this is due to an... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Apr 2025) Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2025) The CPI data suggest that core PCE prices rose at a target-consistent rate in April for the second month running, although it is likely to be a different story this month as tariff effects start to... 13th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response UK-US "deal" reveals Trump's desperation to show progress on trade The “full and comprehensive” trade deal between the US and the UK announced in a rush today by President Donald Trump and PM Keir Starmer is no such thing. As Trump admitted in his press conference... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (May) The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar 2025) The widening in the trade deficit to a new record high in March was driven entirely by imports of pharmaceutical products as firms looked to front-run tariffs. This was broadly in-line with the BEA’s... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
