US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2026) The broad-based strength in the February ISM Services Index, along with the recent improvement in the manufacturing index, suggests the underlying economy is reaccelerating. Indeed, it leaves our... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2026) The essentially unchanged level of the ISM Manufacturing Index in February, after the prior month’s surge, suggests that the domestic factory sector is benefiting from stronger global conditions tied... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in January is another illustration that elevated price inflation remains a threat. Excluding food and energy prices, which were pulled down by a 5.5% m/m... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122... 21st February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be imposing a... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal In a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was wrong to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a justification for imposing his far-reaching reciprocal tariffs... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2025) The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in January was mainly due to a bigger 0.38% m/m gain in core services prices, with core goods prices unchanged, suggesting that tariffs and unseasonably large hikes... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2026) The 172,000 surge in private payrolls in January owed a lot to a 124,000 surge in health care & social assistance, but private sector hiring elsewhere still appears to be strengthening. Indeed, the... 11th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The weaker-than-expected retail sales data for December won’t be enough to spoil the fourth quarter, with our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth still at 3.8% annualised. But, together with the... 10th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Feb 2026) The robust pick-up in the current conditions index hints that the labour market, while still weak is improving, while inflation expectations seem to be heading in the right direction. Admittedly the... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jan 2026) While not as eye-catching as last month’s rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high, the ISM services index remained at a healthy 53.8 in January, hinting at the potential for some more... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
