US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2026) The unchanged core CPI in June is not quite as good as it looks for the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure, but the latter should still have risen at close to a target-consistent rate last month. That... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jun. 16-17) The minutes of the Fed's mid-June meeting confirm a hawkish pivot across the entire rate-setting committee. In a scenario that resembles our baseline for the economy, where the labour market remains... 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (May 2026) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in May was largely down to price effects and can therefore be looked through. That said, the surprise, large fall in computer imports poses a downside risk to... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2026) The much weaker-than-expected rise in non-farm payrolls in June sows some doubt in our view that the Fed will reverse all three of its “insurance cuts” over the next three quarters. Nonetheless, with... 2nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2026) ISM points to easing price pressures The slight fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index in June doesn’t change the fact that the sector has generally been resilient since the start of the Iran war. And... 1st July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2026) The 3.4% rate of core PCE inflation in May likely marks the peak of this cycle, as tariff effects fade and the recent plunge in oil prices weighs on several categories, including airline fares. Even... 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2026) The median FOMC projection now points to a clear risk of the FOMC hiking this year, but it is likely skewed toward the non-voting hawkish Fed presidents and would probably have pointed to unchanged... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2026) The strong rise in retail sales in May was far broader than a price-driven increase in gasoline spending, with sales excluding gasoline and underlying control group sales both rising an impressive 0.7... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2026) The weaker-than-expected unchanged manufacturing output reading in May suggests the sector is not entirely immune to elevated oil prices, despite the structural tailwind from the AI buildout... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2026) The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2026) The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are not broadening... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2026) Although the trade deficit was little changed in April, our calculations suggest that gold-adjusted export volumes far outpaced import volumes. That leaves net trade on track to make an even stronger... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2026) The third consecutive consensus-beating gain in non-farm payrolls in May should further reduce concern among the FOMC about the downside risks to the labour market, thereby making it even harder for... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2026) Strong services price pressures will add to Fed’s concerns The rise in the ISM Services Index in May, together with the latest rise in the manufacturing index, suggests that the economy is enjoying... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2026) ISM confirms manufacturing sector in cyclical upswing The rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in May suggests that the sector continues to hold up well, probably because the boost... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
