US Rapid Response US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2026) The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending has... 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Mar 2026) The jump in headline CPI inflation to 3.3% in March, from 2.4%, was as expected due to the surge in energy prices, with the more important development for the Fed being the lack of any major... 10th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2026) The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts first-quarter... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Mar 17-18) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some”... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2026) The rise in core (ex. transport) durable goods orders in February shows American industry was battling on ahead of the surge in oil prices, despite the heightened uncertainty caused by tariffs... 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2026) The larger-than-expected rebound in non-farm payrolls in March mainly reflects a reversal of the strike and weather effects that weighed on hiring in February, rather than being a sign that the labour... 3rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2026) Large gold outflows were once again met by sizeable computer imports to keep the trade deficit largely unchanged in February and our first-quarter GDP growth estimate near to 3%. 2nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2026) The slight rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in March masks the unease among firms evident in the breakdown, with new orders dropping back and supplier delivery times lengthening. The further rise... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in control group retail sales in February suggests that consumption was gaining some momentum ahead of the surge in gasoline prices. Nonetheless... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar 2026) The FOMC’s statement and dot plot today were arguably not as hawkish as many speculated, with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) still pointing to one interest rate cut this year, despite an... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2026) The large upside surprise to the PPI in February confirms that stronger inflationary pressures were already making their way through supply chains even prior to the surge in oil prices. Final demand... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb. 2026) The modest rise in manufacturing output in February, together with the upward revision to January’s already strong gain, keeps up the sense that a gradual factory sector recovery is underway. With... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan) The weakness in GDP growth at the end of last year was more severe than initially thought but, given the government shutdown appears to have been a significant drag, we anticipate a strong rebound in... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2026) Gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment were once again the main drivers behind moves in the trade deficit in January, while limited revisions to preceding months’ figures suggest little change to... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The modest 0.22% m/m gain in the core CPI in February is not as good news as it first seems, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.42% gain in the core PCE deflator. That would maintain the... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb 2026) Even allowing for the strikes by 31,000 Kaiser Permanente health care workers in California and Hawaii and 15,000 nurses in NYC, the 92,000 decline in payroll employment in February, combined with the... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
