US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in January was mainly due to a bigger 0.38% m/m gain in core services prices, with core goods prices unchanged, suggesting that tariffs and unseasonably large hikes... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2026) The 172,000 surge in private payrolls in January owed a lot to a 124,000 surge in health care & social assistance, but private sector hiring elsewhere still appears to be strengthening. Indeed, the... 11th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The weaker-than-expected retail sales data for December won’t be enough to spoil the fourth quarter, with our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth still at 3.8% annualised. But, together with the... 10th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Feb 2026) The robust pick-up in the current conditions index hints that the labour market, while still weak is improving, while inflation expectations seem to be heading in the right direction. Admittedly the... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jan 2026) While not as eye-catching as last month’s rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high, the ISM services index remained at a healthy 53.8 in January, hinting at the potential for some more... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan 2026) The surge in the ISM Manufacturing Index in January suggests that after years of malaise, perhaps the manufacturing sector might be turning a corner. While the headline index is still at a level that... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Dec 2025) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in December was mainly due to an increase in trade services margins. Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI increased by 0.4% m/m last month... 30th January 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response New Fed Chair Announcement If officially announced later today, President Trump’s apparent pick of Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair would arguably be one of the better outcomes for investors compared to the other contenders... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Nov. 2025) The sharp swings in trade continued in November, with the trade deficit rebounding sharply to $56.8bn, from the prior month’s multi-year low of $29.2bn, a move that will lower most estimates of fourth... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan 2026) The change to the FOMC’s policy statement, acknowledging the recent solid pace of GDP growth and stabilisation in the unemployment rate, is further evidence that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest... 28th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Nov 2025) A jump in Boeing orders was the main driver of higher durable goods orders in November, although core (ex. transport) orders still performed decently. Most importantly, another rise in underlying... 26th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The solid 0.3% m/m gains in real consumption in both October and November confirm that the government shutdown had very little impact on economic activity. Those gains slightly outpaced our prior... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
