US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2026) The small fall in housing starts in April masks a weaker underlying picture, with a surge in volatile multi-family starts offsetting a material weakening in single-family groundbreaking, albeit from a... 21st May 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Apr 28-29) The minutes from the Fed’s late April meeting were even more hawkish than expected based on the initial post meeting communications, which had been largely unchanged despite some dissents. The most... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr 2026) The 0.6% m/m rise in manufacturing output in April was partly due to a rebound in the transportation equipment sector, but there are also signs that the AI buildout is beginning to support activity... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr 2026) The April retail sales data were a little softer than we expected but still lead us to estimate that real consumption edged up by 0.1% m/m last month. Moreover, the upward revisions to control group... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Apr 2026) April’s stronger-than-expected PPI figures have little bearing on our estimate for a 0.30% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in April. While still above the target-consistent pace, that is not as... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The 0.4% m/m gain in core CPI in April was largely due to the expected jump in owners’ equivalent rent and another gain in airfares, rather than reflecting a significant broadening of inflation... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr. 2026) The solid 115,000 rise in payroll employment in April and still-muted 4.3% unemployment rate add to the reasons for the Fed to remain on hold for now. The reduced reliance of hiring on healthcare in... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2026) The unchanged level of the ISM Services Prices Paid Index at 70.7 in April is not the worst outcome, given its manufacturing counterpart surged to a four-year high of 84.6 in the same month. Even so... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar. 2026) The modest widening of the trade deficit in March, despite another solid rise in goods exports, was less about insatiable AI-driven demand for computer hardware than in recent months, and more about a... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1 2026) The rebound in first-quarter GDP growth was partly driven by the reversal of the earlier government shutdown drag, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPFP) also expanded at a solid 2.5%... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) While leaving interest rates unchanged today, the Fed maintained its easing bias, reinforcing our view that its next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. That said, the Fed's communications... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Mar. 2026) & Housing Starts (Feb./Mar. 2026) The batch of data just published suggest the risks to our estimate that first-quarter GDP growth will come in at 2.5% annualised in tomorrow’s advance release are skewed to the upside. 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The sharp rise in retail sales in March mainly reflects the surge in gasoline prices, but control group sales were also stronger than we anticipated. That leaves us to estimate that real consumption... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2026) First-quarter manufacturing growth was the strongest in more than four years, but that largely reflects a rebound from a particularly weak fourth quarter. With higher energy prices set to be a drag on... 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar 2026) After a strong couple of months, the downside surprise in core producer prices in March offers some encouragement for the Fed that pipeline inflation pressures are not spiralling out of control... 14th April 2026 · 2 mins read
