US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2025) The weak 73,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, combined with large downward revisions to May and June’s gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, will strengthen the case for those on... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2025) The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jun. 2025) Ignore the large 9.3% m/m drop in durable goods orders in June, which reflects a reversal of May’s surge of aircraft orders from the Qatar Airways Boeing deal announced during President Trump's visit... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2025) The small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July and further drop-back in inflation expectations shows that, while overall confidence remains weak, households are less... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in June and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales should dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (June 2025) The small rise in both industrial production and manufacturing output in June suggest that reciprocal tariffs are neither providing a boost nor suppressing domestic production. 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2025) There were fewer signs of tariff effects in June’s PPI data, meaning our estimate for core PCE prices now points to a trivially smaller 0.27% m/m rise last month. While prices are rising at slower... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in the core CPI in June indicates that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator rose by 0.3% last month, with the annual core PCE inflation rate unchanged at 2.7%. While that would be... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 17-18 2025) The minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting show most Fed officials content to wait and see what impact tariffs and other government policies had on inflation and the labour market before committing to... 9th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens 14 countries with higher reciprocal tariffs President Donald Trump has now released “letters” to 14 countries today, announcing that, unless they negotiate a deal over the next few weeks, he will impose reciprocal tariffs on those countries... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump threatens to resurrect 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea President Donald Trump has released the first of his “letters” threatening to impose country-specific tariffs of 25% on both Japan and South Korea from August 1 st, if those countries can’t reach a... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2025) & International Trade (May 2025) The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A deeper dive shows the strength was again concentrated in government... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
