US Economics Update NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest full employment is close Recent surveys show that the strength of business sentiment is fuelling a recovery in capital investment while ensuring that firms’ demand for labour is as strong as ever. With the pool of unemployed... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey shows weaker loan demand The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) reveals that the recent weakness in bank lending is principally due to weak demand for loans rather than banks tightening lending standards. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Consumption growth set to rebound in second quarter After coming to a near standstill in the first quarter, we expect consumption growth to rebound to more than 2% annualised in the second quarter. Furthermore, there are good reasons to expect even... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the US about to withdraw from NAFTA? Only a few weeks after the Treasury passed up the chance to label China a currency manipulator, a new report from Politico suggests that the White House is close to finalising an Executive Order on... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump's new tax plan looks a lot like the old one The “new” tax plan that the White House unveiled today looks a lot like President Donald Trump’s old economic plan from the election campaign, with deep cuts to corporate and individual tax rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will retailers and restaurants drag the economy under? The acceleration in the pace of retail bankruptcies reflects a structural shift to online sales, while the weakness of restaurant sales is partly due to lower grocery prices. 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging confidence boost consumer spending? The recent surge in consumer confidence appears to have been partly driven by the election of President Donald Trump, but the strength of the labour market, rising equity prices and low gasoline... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump faces several near-term challenges President Donald Trump’s new-found enthusiasm for realpolitik rather than the “America First” doctrine he championed in his inaugural speech is encouraging, but his administration still faces several... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to diminishing labour market slack The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, despite the slowdown in payroll employment growth last month, labour market slack continues to diminish. They also provide further evidence that this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loose financial conditions open the door to more Fed hikes Despite the Fed raising interest rates twice in the past four months, broad financial conditions in the US have actually loosened. The current calm in financial markets, if sustained, would be another... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Another weak first quarter and ‘soft’ versus ‘hard’ data The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care failure doesn’t derail prospects for tax reform The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the health care vote threaten Trump’s fiscal stimulus? Thursday’s key House vote on the Republicans’ health care bill has been attracting a lot of attention in the markets amid fears that a defeat would threaten President Donald Trump’s plans for a major... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed hikes rates, but leaves forecasts unchanged As everyone expected following the recent blitz by officials to prepare the markets, the Fed raised the fed funds target by another 25bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, but officials left their... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform delay means we need to tweak our GDP forecast With the prospect of an early deal on tax reform fading fast, we now assume that the fiscal stimulus won’t be passed by Congress until the start of next year and, as a result, we are revising down our... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump struggling to implement his agenda President Donald Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress this evening offered only a little additional clarity on the tax reforms and additional spending the White House will be seeking from... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
