US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal stimulus will provide only temporary boost The Republicans' long-awaited tax reform bill, which looks set to be signed into law this week, represents the first major legislative victory for President Donald Trump and should provide a modest... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed raises rates, still projects 3 hikes next year As widely expected, the Fed hiked interest rates by 25bp today, taking the fed funds target range to between 1.25% and 1.50%. Despite factoring in the imminent fiscal stimulus into their GDP growth... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year Although small firms are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, the latest surveys suggest that business investment growth may soon start to slow. But with demand for labour as strong as... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will fiscal and monetary policy interact? The soon-to-be-finalised fiscal stimulus could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy slightly more aggressively next year, although the potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policies... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The monetary aggregates reveal a divergence, with M2 growth slowing to a six-year low of 5.0% in October, while growth in our M3 measure accelerated to a two-and-a-half-year high of 6.1%. As short... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform: what happens next? The Republicans appear to be making reasonable progress on tax reform but, with several key challenges yet to be resolved, there is still a long way to go before a final bill is ready for President... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What have we learnt since the election? In the year since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, events outside of the US have had a bigger impact on the economy, but we doubt that will remain the case. We expect a deficit-financed... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Oct.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Office Survey (SLOS) paints a mixed picture, with banks loosening lending standards on business loans and residential mortgages, but tightening standards on some types of... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity growth back from the dead The sharp rebound in productivity this year, after falling outright in 2016, is positive news for the economy and suggests that real wages will pick up more rapidly soon. But with employment growth... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans’ tax plan edges closer to the finish line The House GOP tax bill released earlier today suggests that Republicans are edging towards their goal of passing tax reform this year. The proposals would add $1.5trn to the deficit over ten years, as... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) The Fed issued a very similar statement at the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting today, which included an upgrade to its assessment of economic growth. On balance, this is a marginally more... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the slump in the saving rate a danger? The decline in the household saving rate, to a near-decade low of 3.1% in September, is largely explained by the accompanying surge in household net wealth to a record high. Capital gains mean that... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
