US Economics Update Risk of Taylor as Fed Chair shouldn't be ignored If President Donald Trump is serious about being a “low-interest rate guy”, markets are probably right to brush off John Taylor’s chances of being nominated for Fed Chair. That said, we don’t agree... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth rising in September to its fastest pace in more than two years, although growth in narrow money continues to slow gradually. 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NAFTA withdrawal no longer out of the question The demise of the NAFTA agreement would have a modest negative impact on the US economy. But if a unilateral withdrawal by the Trump administration signalled the beginning of a broader lurch toward... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Earnings repatriation unlikely to boost the economy The Republicans’ tax plans could result in a sizable chunk of the $2.6tn of earnings held overseas by US firms being repatriated. However, although the tax revenues from such a move could help to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys underline that labour market conditions are exceptionally tight, and suggest that the recent pick-up in wage and investment growth has further to run. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will a move towards full expensing boost investment? The shift to full expensing of firms’ capital investments included in Republicans’ tax plans would provide a temporary boost to the economy by encouraging businesses to bring forward investment... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Regulation may be deciding factor for next Fed Chair The debate surrounding the four candidates who were interviewed to become the next Fed Chair has focused almost exclusively on how they might affect the monetary policy outlook, but we suspect it will... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Republicans flesh out tax cut proposals The unified tax proposals released by Republicans today offer more detail than before, but there are still a number of missing pieces that make it hard to estimate the overall cost of the plan... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed undeterred by weak core inflation The Fed’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.0-1.25%, as well as its long-anticipated move to formally announce the start of the balance sheet normalisation process next month, came... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys suggest weak wage growth won’t last While the recovery in business investment looks set to continue, the latest surveys suggest that firms will soon have to increase the pay they are offering if they want to hire additional workers. 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Harvey & Irma potential costs begin to mount Estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey have been rising in recent days, but we still expect the short-term negative impact on activity and employment to be modest. Unfortunately, it now... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What do immigration changes mean for the economy? The announcement by the White House that it will phase out the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, which provides temporary work permits for 800,000 children of illegal... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rates of the monetary aggregates remained strong in August, but bank loan growth is still muted. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hurricane Harvey will have little impact on national economy Hurricane Harvey is a national tragedy, but the impact on the national economy will be minimal. We might see a small uptick in initial jobless claims in early September and a very modest adverse... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling negotiations about to enter crucial stage Congress should act to raise the debt ceiling by mid-October, but a short shutdown looks inevitable. Moreover, the tensions between the White House and the various Republican factions in Congress make... 28th August 2017 · 1 min read
