US Economics Update Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty The presidential election race is now too close to call, raising the possibility of a near-tied election result that would be aggressively disputed by one or both of the candidates. Under those... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market? The conventional wisdom is that a Clinton administration would represent a near seamless continuation of the current Obama administration, but that view could be under-estimating the potential for a... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the recent evidence that labour market conditions have weakened a little over the past year, and that slack is no longer diminishing at such a rapid pace. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy There is little evidence that the upcoming presidential election played any role in the weakness of economic growth in the first half of this year or, despite the early optimism, what is shaping up to... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a December rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, but it appears to be firmly on track for a December hike. However, the fed funds rate... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates accelerated in August, with a particularly pronounced pick-up in narrow M1 money growth, but bank loan growth has slowed slightly. The latter is... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms continue to hoard cash overseas The cash held overseas by US firms has continued to grow at a rapid pace, rising to almost $2.5tn in 2015. The substantial tax bill most firms would face if they attempted to bring this cash home... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was unchanged at a five-month low of 89.8 in September, although it is still at a level that, historically, has been consistent with real... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market slack no longer shrinking Since the start of this year the rate of improvement in labour market conditions has slowed to a crawl. While a welcome rebound in the participation rate helps to explain why the unemployment rate has... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) With the growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate at a solid 4.4% y/y in July and bank loan growth at an even stronger 7.7% y/y, the economy appears to be in good health. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey points to tightening labour market The latest JOLT survey suggests that labour market conditions continue to tighten, which should generate an acceleration in wage growth later this year. 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
