US Economics Update Rise in short-term interest rates is little to fear The recent surge in short-term market interest rates in the US is linked to the upcoming change in money market fund rules rather than any underlying financial problems 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the sharp rebound in June payrolls as evidence that labour market conditions continue to improve, which should generate a more pronounced acceleration in wage... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) has inevitably triggered an immediate negative reaction in global financial markets, but we do not anticipate a significant sustained tightening in US... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moves the goal posts yet again Despite leaving its economic projections largely unchanged today (GDP growth expectations were revised down slightly, inflation forecasts were revised up slightly) the FOMC nevertheless cut its... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey The latest NFIB survey suggests that small businesses are still intent on hiring additional workers, even though finding suitably qualified employees is getting harder. Unfortunately, small businesses... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations are rising not falling The decline in long-term inflation expectations to a record low in the University of Michigan’s June consumer confidence survey won’t prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, not least because... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth will benefit from oil price rebound The recent rally in oil prices is a positive for the US economy insofar as it confirms that the drag from falling mining investment will fade by the second half of the year. And with households having... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The robust growth in bank loans and the monetary aggregates is another reason to believe that second-quarter GDP growth will rebound markedly. The growth rate of our M3 measure accelerated to 4.0% in... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal no labour market deterioration The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, contrary to the already reported slowdown in the pace of monthly payroll gains in April, labour market slack is still shrinking. That should eventually... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the worst now over for the manufacturing sector? While the drag on GDP growth from the manufacturing slump may fade in the second half of this year, the sector is unlikely to make any major positive contribution to the economy for some time yet... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Although the annual growth rate of our own M3 measure was a still muted 3.8% in March, the strength of M2 growth, at 6.2%, and bank loan growth, at 7.8%, underscores that there is nothing in the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update SLOS shows contrast between business and consumer lending The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) underscores that business investment is likely to remain muted for some time yet. In contrast, the consumer outlook is encouraging. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed less worried by global risks; open to June rate hike As universally expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds target range unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% today, but left the door open to a second 25 basis point rate hike in June. With core inflation... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in net external debt a long-term negative for dollar Although the current account deficit remains well below the peak reached in 2006, net external debt has soared to more than 40% of GDP, up from only 10% a decade ago. The external debt burden is still... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
