Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Foreign capital flows to the US set to stay at low levels The US’ relatively strong economic growth outlook and large data center market are likely to support a pick-up in foreign demand for US assets after the cross-border share of purchases fell to at... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buy versus rent dynamics favour apartment markets in the Midwest and New York State The large cost gap between buying and renting today underpins our upbeat national apartment demand forecast. Applying the same logic at the city level, demand in Midwestern and New York State metros... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 RICS survey shows US real estate market well into recovery phase The latest RICS survey showed that US commercial real estate is now well into the recovery phase, with improvements across the occupier and investment indicators. Rental expectations are therefore... 9th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q4 2025: Returns of 4.9% highlight modest recovery Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real... 26th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have data center REIT prices and asset values diverged? The divergence between data center REIT performance and data center asset values over the last year appears to reflect the high level of uncertainty in the sector. Questions over power constraints... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update At least two more years of divergence between South and West We expect continued divergence in both total non-farm and office-sector job growth across the largest metros over the next two years. Those in the South will continue to significantly outperform the... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026 We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7%... 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2025 key calls for US CRE Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Senior housing returns to exceed 10% p.a. over 2026-30 Solid demand and a lack of new supply mean we expect senior housing vacancy rates to reach record lows in 2027 and stay at low levels in the following years, helping rent gains averages 4.5% p.a. over... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 US RICS survey shows growing market confidence Investment sentiment saw a sharp improvement in Q3, buoyed by falling interest rates and growing confidence in the economic outlook, although foreign enquiries remained in the doldrums. There was also... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q3 2025: Same old, same old Capital values were broadly flat in Q3 and total returns reached 1.2% q/q, unchanged from Q2. While the main sector ranking is consistent with our views – retail and residential leading, office and... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Self-storage valuations look most stretched of all main sectors Self-storage cap rates are roughly on par with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is well short of the 200bps spread seen over the last 10 years. Coupled with an uninspiring outlook for rent growth... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and residential sectors set to outperform globally In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
