Global Commercial Property Update Alternative real estate sectors set to gain more ground In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term... 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Changing living costs key for remote worker migration Nashville has reclaimed top spot in our ranking of the attractiveness to remote workers of 52 US metros. Its continued dominance owes much to its relatively low cost of living, a factor that has... 16th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 26 PREA consensus much more optimistic than us The Q1 PREA consensus for returns of 6.8% p.a. over 2026-30 is significantly above our call for returns of 5.2% p.a. Our view that appraised cap rates have further to rise is behind that difference... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Iran conflict a small downside risk to US commercial real estate returns The increase in energy costs brought about by the conflict in Iran could hit commercial real estate returns either through squeezed occupier margins and therefore weaker property demand and rent... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Foreign capital flows to the US set to stay at low levels The US’ relatively strong economic growth outlook and large data center market are likely to support a pick-up in foreign demand for US assets after the cross-border share of purchases fell to at... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buy versus rent dynamics favour apartment markets in the Midwest and New York State The large cost gap between buying and renting today underpins our upbeat national apartment demand forecast. Applying the same logic at the city level, demand in Midwestern and New York State metros... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 RICS survey shows US real estate market well into recovery phase The latest RICS survey showed that US commercial real estate is now well into the recovery phase, with improvements across the occupier and investment indicators. Rental expectations are therefore... 9th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q4 2025: Returns of 4.9% highlight modest recovery Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real... 26th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have data center REIT prices and asset values diverged? The divergence between data center REIT performance and data center asset values over the last year appears to reflect the high level of uncertainty in the sector. Questions over power constraints... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update At least two more years of divergence between South and West We expect continued divergence in both total non-farm and office-sector job growth across the largest metros over the next two years. Those in the South will continue to significantly outperform the... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026 We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7%... 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2025 key calls for US CRE Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
