Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Corporate bonds offer more proof of stretched US CRE valuations On the back of the MSCI and NCREIF indices reporting rising capital values in Q1 and our significantly below-consensus forecast views for the next two years, we are again re-evaluating our forecasts... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Tariff upheaval not expected to derail industrial upturn The recent court ruling on tariffs has put industrial demand back in the spotlight. Our view is that not enough has changed yet to make wholesale revisions to our short-term view and that, beyond this... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 US CRE activity sprouts, but tariffs weigh on recovery Commercial real estate investment climbed on a y/y basis in Q1, but recent surveys revealed that the unpredictability of policy changes and tariffs have dampened investor confidence. We expect this to... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US domestic migration trends to persist, but flows from abroad are at risk The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Amazon expansion unlikely to bring turnaround for industrial Demand from Amazon has been a key driver of industrial fortunes over recent years, so the announcement of a new $15bn injection in the US was greeted warmly by market watchers. But, while this should... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 Index shows US commercial property values now rising, but valuation gaps persist The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain... 28th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey shows resilient US CRE sentiment, but downside risks ahead The Q1 RICS US commercial property survey reported steady investment sentiment. That is in line with our belief that the market is headed for an upturn, although the impact of new tariffs and the... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why even the worst-hit cities look likely to recover The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with... 22nd April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Midwest outperformance will not last More encouraging figures from the previously underperforming Midwest region suggest that it may be turning a corner. But while this may continue for several quarters more, there has not been enough... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Answering key client questions from our roundtables on how the pandemic continues to shape real estate Last week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about how the pandemic will shape real estate into the 2030s. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Did the pandemic change where households are choosing to live? The pandemic triggered an exodus from large cities in both the UK and US as households used the freedom of remote work to move to cheaper locations with larger homes. In the rental market, that trend... 3rd April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail subsectors to see more consistent performance Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a... 26th March 2025 · 6 mins read
