Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal weaker Q3, no recovery in Q4 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey for September (to be released on Monday) will probably show a deterioration in business conditions in the third quarter, and predictions for the fourth quarter are... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Shrinking exports will act as large drag on Q3 GDP Japan’s goods exports fell further in August as the slowdown in the global economy continued to weigh on trade. Unless exports have rebounded in September, and today’s flash PMIs from China and the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing welcome but will not succeed in capping yen The Bank of Japan surprised markets today with a move that gave the impression of co-ordinated easing by the major global central banks, providing a welcome boost to confidence. However, we had... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Broad money growth remained weak in August but it picked up slightly amid a continued rise in bank lending. Household demand for credit remains firm but businesses are cutting back on borrowing from... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Machinery orders still weak despite pick-up in July The second successive monthly rise in Japanese core machinery orders in July, announced today, does not suggest business capital spending will expand in Q3. The level of orders remains low, firms... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Businesses’ hopes of recovery scaled back The Japanese government’s Business Outlook Survey suggests conditions improved slightly in Q3, with firms expecting further improvements over the next six months. Whilst clearly good news, the pick-up... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No sign yet of slowdown bottoming out The latest figures on the state of Japan’s economy in August were not uniformly bad, but as signs that the slowdown has bottomed out they were unconvincing. Our long-held view that the economy will... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Disappointing investment survey suggests weaker growth The acceleration in business capital spending revealed by the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF) investment survey was not enough to impress markets. Indeed, the headline annual figure is flattered by... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Disappointing investment survey suggests weaker growth The acceleration in business capital spending revealed by the Ministry of Finance’s (MoF) investment survey was not enough to impress markets. Indeed, the headline annual figure is flattered by... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales fall as support from vehicle subsidy fades Slowing auto sales dragged down retail spending last month. Even sharper falls are likely when the funds for the eco-car subsidy run out, probably any day now. With few signs of support elsewhere in... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Weak Japanese exports continue regional trend The weakness in Japan’s export data in July provides yet another reminder of the fragility of the recovery in the global economy. What’s more, these data underline the trend across Asia, with no sign... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fading growth remains reliant on government support Japan’s economy slowed to a crawl in Q2, with growth remaining dependent on government support for a second consecutive quarter. With the external economy weak and private demand fragile, GDP is... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The economy is not “picking up moderately” The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at its August meeting, as was widely expected. However, it continues to state that the economy is “picking up moderately” despite the growing body of... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery starting to unravel The Economy Watchers’ Survey, published today, adds to the growing body of evidence that Japan’s economic recovery has not just paused but has started to unravel. Worryingly, labour market conditions... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
