Japan Economics Update BoJ may still have to step up pace of easing The BoJ left policy settings unchanged today, and may merely confirm that QQE will be maintained in its current form at the October meeting. However, we expect inflation to fall short of the Bank's... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Even though bank lending has reaccelerated lately amid supportive financial conditions, a range of surveys suggest that credit growth will slow in coming months. 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Third arrow unlikely to boost potential growth significantly While the revised “Growth Strategy” appears to contain some promising elements, it is unlikely to lift Japan’s potential growth rate significantly. In particular, the document does not adequately... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update External trade (May) The trade deficit remained broadly unchanged in May, and should narrow slightly further in coming months. 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly exaggerated Even though the BoJ left policy unchanged today and provided no indication that additional stimulus will be forthcoming any time soon, we think that it is premature to write off further easing. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update For how much longer can the BoJ buy government bonds? While the share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank's holdings can’t increase much further. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update July easing seems to be off the table The optimistic tone of recent BoJ communication suggests that the chances of additional stimulus being announced as soon as July, as many had expected, have shrunk substantially. We however continue... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much could higher female employment boost GDP? Raising female participation in the labour force to the same rate as that for men could boost Japan’s GDP by as much as 13%. However, no advanced economy has achieved parity on this basis, and a more... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.14) The latest Senior Loan Officer survey showed that banks expect household loan demand to weaken sharply in the second quarter. Borrowing is highly likely to slow now that the consumption tax hike has... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ divisions underline case for more easing It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy unchanged today and sounded confident about the prospects of hitting its inflation target. However, not all Board members are convinced that the 2%... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) The expansion in the broad money aggregates has ground to a halt in the last two months. Bank lending is slowing now, too, even though financial conditions remain very accommodative. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Poor consumer sentiment adds to PM Abe’s challenges The collapse in consumer confidence shows that Japanese households lost their enthusiasm for “Abenomics” well before investor appetite for Japanese equities began to wane. 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Expectations of mid-year easing likely to be disappointed The markets may be disappointed in coming months as we think the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce further monetary easing later than many expect. We continue to favour October, rather than July. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal consolidation continues despite “record” spending The “record” ¥95.9 trillion in budgeted expenditure for the coming fiscal year does not mean that the government has given up on fiscal consolidation. But its medium-term targets are still likely to... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
