Japan Economics Update Industry recovering but still plenty for Kuroda to do The smaller-than-expected increase in industrial production in January is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery in Japan, and perhaps in global activity too. The output projections made by firms... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Global demand, not yen, behind export recovery While the headlines have focussed on the size of Japan’s merchandise trade deficit last month, the more important development in the latest trade data was the strength of exports. We suspect that a... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slide back into recession bad news but old news The small contraction in Q4 and revisions to back data mean that Japanese GDP fell in each of the last three quarters of 2012. However, more timely monthly indicators and surveys already show that the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese consumers confident in “Abenomics” The jump in consumer confidence in January underlines just how big a task the Abe government has to meet the high expectations now spreading well beyond the financial markets. However, the improvement... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP probably still fell despite recovery in orders The continued recovery in machinery orders in December suggests that business investment is on the mend. On balance, we still think that GDP contracted for a second successive quarter in Q4 2012... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Hopes of smooth handover at the BoJ may be wishful thinking Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa’s announcement that he intends to leave office in March, a few weeks early, might ease the transition to a new leadership team. However, his move may not advance the... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal credibility starting to unravel Hopes that yet more fiscal stimulus will transform the prospects for Japan’s economy, or at least make a meaningful difference to GDP in the next year or so, are overdone. The government’s credibility... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Record trade deficit only partly due to yen strength Japan’s record trade deficit in 2012 mainly reflected the fragility of the global economic recovery and a persistently high bill for energy imports, with currency strength playing a secondary role... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) A lack of demand, rather than the level of interest rates or problems with credit supply, remains the key factor holding back broad monetary growth in Japan. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we worry about the Bank of Japan’s independence? The Bank of Japan’s adoption of an explicit 2% inflation target after this was called for by the new government has added to fears that central banks worldwide will be forced to monetise public debt... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan’s policy overhaul fails to impress Despite the much-hyped announcement of “open-ended easing” to meet a new 2% inflation target, today’s policy overhaul by the Bank of Japan disappoints in many respects. In particular, the ceiling on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update "Fiscal stimulus" just more of the same In announcing yet another fiscal stimulus package, heavy on public works spending and subsidies for popular projects, Japan’s new government is simply repeating what the others have done before. If... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will there be any real change at the Bank of Japan? Expectations that a higher inflation target and a “new accord” with the government will prompt much more aggressive monetary easing have continued to weaken the yen. However, a closer look at the... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Auto sales recovering but cash still tight for consumers Vehicles sales increased for a third month running in December suggesting that demand is rebounding following the expiry of the eco-car subsidy. However, demand for other consumer durables remains... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further easing risks undermining Bank of Japan independence At its Policy Board meeting today, the Bank of Japan extended its asset purchase program and announced a review of its inflation target. Since Sunday’s election, the incoming LDP government has... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The incoming LDP government is likely to put increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to enact more aggressive monetary easing. But the latest data show that monetary conditions are already extremely... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
