Japan Economics Update Verdict on Abe speech seems harsh Judging by the initial market reaction and media coverage, PM Abe’s “growth strategy” already appears to be a damp squib. To be fair, it was always unrealistic to expect a Prime Ministerial speech in... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hikes essential to maintain credibility Although barely on the radar of most investors just yet, the Abe government’s decision on whether to press ahead with the planned fiscal tightening in 2014 and beyond may well be the most important... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales yet to take off Despite all the hype about “Abenomics” already encouraging a surge in consumer spending, the hard data on retail sales remain subdued. This makes sense given the persistent weakness of employment and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Small business survey illustrates risks to recovery The incoming economic data are of course being overshadowed by the market volatility, but today’s Shoko Chukin survey suggests that small businesses may be losing a little faith in “Abenomics” too. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Boost to Nikkei from weaker yen has run its course Today’s slump is not necessarily the end of the bull market in Japanese equities, but the next few months will be much harder going. We continue to expect the Nikkei to fall further, probably below 13... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan sticks to its guns The Bank of Japan’s inaction today was no surprise, nor was Governor Kuroda’s relatively sanguine attitude to the jump in JGB yields. However, the April external trade data were disappointing and the... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update GDP starts 2013 strongly Japan’s healthy-looking GDP data are the first substantial piece of good economic news under the Abe government. It is debatable just how much of the acceleration is due to “Abenomics” and how much is... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) There are some encouraging signs in Japan’s latest monetary aggregates but it remains too early to tell whether the Bank of Japan’s policy shift last month is feeding the hoped-for acceleration in... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumer confidence falters on inflation fears Japan’s equity markets may still be gripped by euphoria, but the recovery in consumer confidence faltered in April. This coincided with a jump in inflation expectations in the wake of the Bank of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s behind the surge in JGB yields? The jump in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in the last few days probably reflects a confluence of many factors, including speculation that domestic institutions are set to step up... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Improving sentiment still not matched in hard data Despite the widespread optimism about the benefits that “Abenomics” may eventually bring to Japanese businesses and households, the hard data continue to disappoint. In particular, industrial... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the yen? The failure of the yen to weaken past 100 to the dollar has caused some second thoughts in the markets, but we continue to expect the Japanese currency to fall substantially further. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest data on Japan’s monetary aggregates, which predate the Bank of Japan’s policy shift earlier this month, illustrate why a radical change was needed. But they also underline that the success... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slighter better trade data still little to cheer The March data on exports and the overall trade balance were marginally better than the consensus had expected, but the detail is less encouraging. In particular, the improvement in exports probably... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Boost to confidence from “Abenomics” may be waning Consumer confidence rose in March, but by less than expected. What’s more, Japanese households may not view the prospect of an end to deflation quite as positively as businesses and investors. 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei? The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
