Japan Economics Update Risks of a treble-dip growing as economy loses momentum The improvement in the Tankan survey in the third quarter supports other evidence that GDP will at least temporarily return to growth. However, the outlook appears poor, momentum is weak and without a... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales slump due to special factors but outlook weak The sharp fall in retail sales in August was mainly due to the unwinding of special factors that have supported spending over the last three months. Nonetheless, consumer confidence remains low and... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports struggle with weak global economy & strong yen Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle for further growth due to the strong yen and slowing global economy, while imports are climbing due to Japan’s energy needs. Nonetheless, net trade is likely... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recession appears over but any recovery is fragile The government’s Business Outlook Survey provides further evidence that the Japanese economy returned to growth in Q3, which should also be reflected in next month’s Tankan. However, the recovery has... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan follow Switzerland and cap the yen? The yen initially fell against the dollar following the Swiss move to set a formal limit on the strength of the franc. As it happens, we do not think that the authorities in Tokyo are ready to do the... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Vehicle sales: a good indicator of retail spending? Domestic vehicle sales in Japan appear to be closely correlated with both consumer confidence and retail sales. Recent sharp gyrations in the monthly retail sales data make understanding their... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industrial recovery peters out The slowdown in industrial production growth in July suggests that the recovery in output may have largely run its course and that output may not fully recover to its pre-disaster level. 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Old economic problems for a new leader The election of a new prime minister is as unlikely to mark a change in the politics of Japan as it is to change the economic outlook. Whilst we sincerely hope new Prime Minister Noda can provide the... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will struggle as global economy stays weak Now that the hard work of restoring shipments to pre-disaster levels is all but complete, Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle to achieve further growth. Exports had been flat for a year before... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Growth to resume in H2, but headwinds linger Japan’s economy contracted again in Q2, despite a faster-than-expected recovery from March’s disaster. GDP should start to expand in Q3 as output continues to recover and reconstruction-related... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Machinery orders jump but outlook appears weak Core machinery orders, which are a reliable and timely indicator of business capital spending, jumped in June, however businesses expect orders growth to fall away sharply in Q3. This does not... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2 GDP likely fell less than expected GDP probably fell in Q2, but not by as much as initially expected thanks to the rapid restoration of supply chains. The direct implications for policy are negligible, and are likely to be overshadowed... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's next for the Bank of Japan? The recent slide in the Nikkei and the continued strength of the yen point to the economy and the exchange rate moving in opposite directions, driven by different forces. The policy prescription... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will intervention weaken the yen for long? The success of today’s intervention to reduce the value of the yen may prove short-lived, so long as the strong forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. Nonetheless, we still think the yen is... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services sector activity slows in July The services PMI was weaker in July than in June, suggesting the recovery in tertiary sector activity may have stalled at the start of Q3. Whilst businesses are optimistic that reconstruction-related... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
