Japan Economics Update Tankan less encouraging than headlines suggest The marginal improvement in the Tankan survey of business conditions in the quarter just ended points to only a fragile recovery at best. Large manufacturers may be less negative, but large... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to signal weaker growth in Q2 and Q3 The Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey for June (to be released on Monday) will probably show no improvement in business conditions in the second quarter, and predictions for Q3 are likely to remain weak... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strong retail spending flattered by auto subsidy Better-than-expected retail sales figures disguise signs of weakness in underlying consumer demand. Sales are being propped up by the eco-car subsidy and are likely to fall sharply after the subsidy... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax (finally) set to rise On Tuesday, the long-awaited increase in Japan’s consumption tax came a step closer as a bill to raise the tax passed Japan’s lower house of parliament. Although a step in the right direction to... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Today we are launching a new monthly publication on the Japan service, the Monetary Indicators Monitor. The recent levelling out in the monetary base has been cited by many commentators as evidence... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Underlying investment outlook remains weak We are sceptical that signs of an increase in business capital spending signal a rebound in private non-residential investment. Underlying business investment is weak, albeit on a gradual upward trend... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan’s stimulus offset weak demand elsewhere? Japan’s post-earthquake policy stimulus may be having a positive impact on the demand for commodities, but any boost will be short-lived and should be far smaller than the potential adverse effects of... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Business conditions tougher than expected but optimism remains The government’s Business Outlook Survey indicates conditions deteriorated slightly in Q2, confounding Q1’s forecasts of a strong recovery. Despite the tougher-than-expected environment, firms remain... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery already losing momentum Japan’s rapid recovery in Q1 already appears to be losing momentum. The unemployment rate has risen again and retail spending fell for a second consecutive month in April. However, government... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still biased towards further easing There is no real substance to suggestions that the lack of any explicit reference to “powerful” easing in the Bank of Japan’s policy statement today signals a shift towards a more neutral stance... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery in Japan too dependent on government support The rebound in Japan’s Q1 GDP was a welcome bolt of good news. Unfortunately it is also likely to mark the high point of the year as we expect growth will slow in the coming quarters. The recovery is... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Economic outlook improving but challenges remain On the basis of figures released today, Japan’s recovery appears to be on track. But recent data have not been uniformly positive and the next few months are likely to be bumpy. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rising wages could be a small bright spot for the economy The increase in labour cash earnings in March could be an early sign of improvement in the Japanese economy. Although base effects played an important part, other labour market indicators suggest... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery appears to be faltering Today’s data releases were inevitably overshadowed by the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting, but they were disappointing too. Indeed, they suggest that Japan’s economic recovery may... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan plays a poor hand badly The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board failed to impress with the additional monetary “stimulus” announced today. Any market impact from the ¥10 trillion increase in outright purchases of JGBs was offset by... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
