Japan Economics Update Old economic problems for a new leader The election of a new prime minister is as unlikely to mark a change in the politics of Japan as it is to change the economic outlook. Whilst we sincerely hope new Prime Minister Noda can provide the... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two (very different) scenarios for the yen Japan’s government appears to have changed course and dropped its attempt to weaken the yen in favour of mitigating the impact of a strong currency. For now we are sticking to our view that the yen... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will struggle as global economy stays weak Now that the hard work of restoring shipments to pre-disaster levels is all but complete, Japan’s exporters face an uphill struggle to achieve further growth. Exports had been flat for a year before... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Growth to resume in H2, but headwinds linger Japan’s economy contracted again in Q2, despite a faster-than-expected recovery from March’s disaster. GDP should start to expand in Q3 as output continues to recover and reconstruction-related... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Machinery orders jump but outlook appears weak Core machinery orders, which are a reliable and timely indicator of business capital spending, jumped in June, however businesses expect orders growth to fall away sharply in Q3. This does not... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2 GDP likely fell less than expected GDP probably fell in Q2, but not by as much as initially expected thanks to the rapid restoration of supply chains. The direct implications for policy are negligible, and are likely to be overshadowed... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What's next for the Bank of Japan? The recent slide in the Nikkei and the continued strength of the yen point to the economy and the exchange rate moving in opposite directions, driven by different forces. The policy prescription... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will intervention weaken the yen for long? The success of today’s intervention to reduce the value of the yen may prove short-lived, so long as the strong forces pushing the currency higher remain intact. Nonetheless, we still think the yen is... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services sector activity slows in July The services PMI was weaker in July than in June, suggesting the recovery in tertiary sector activity may have stalled at the start of Q3. Whilst businesses are optimistic that reconstruction-related... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earnings fall back even as hours rise Salaries in Japan fell unexpectedly in June, as mid-year bonuses and overtime pay was cut. But as hours worked increase and employment gradually picks up, it seems more workers are working longer for... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery on track as outlook brightens There was further evidence today that the recovery in Japan was broadly on track at the end of Q2. Although the labour market remains weak, and power shortages continue, businesses are optimistic... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strength in retail sales unlikely to last Retail sales in Japan surprised on the upside in June and will provide a small boost to GDP. Temporary factors, including a last-minute surge in demand for digital televisions in June, will diminish... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Export jump in June supports recovery The rapid rise in Japanese exports in June adds to the evidence that production continued to recover quickly in Q2. In Q3 it is likely the pace of the recovery will slow as growth in the global... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Lending survey indicates moderate recovery in Q3 The economic slowdown following March’s disaster caused loan demand from Japanese households and firms to fall sharply in Q2. According to the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey, demand is expected to... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still (too) optimistic about growth The Bank of Japan today acknowledged that growth prospects for FY2011 will be somewhat lower than it forecast even in April due to the downturn immediately after the earthquake, but it did not think... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the Bank of Japan propping up the equity market? The Bank of Japan appears to be timing its purchases of equity ETFs to support the stock market whenever the Topix falls by more than 1%. However, developments in global markets, and in the yen... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
